Time to call out the anti-GMO conspiracy theory
Mark
Lynas speech hosted by the International Programs – College of
Agriculture and Life Sciences (50th Anniversary Celebration) , and the
Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, Cornell University
29 April 2013, 2.15pm ETI think the controversy over GMOs represents one of the greatest science communications failures of the past half-century. Millions, possibly billions, of people have come to believe what is essentially a conspiracy theory, generating fear and misunderstanding about a whole class of technologies on an unprecedentedly global scale.
This matters enormously because these technologies – in particular the various uses of molecular biology to enhance plant breeding potential – are clearly some of our most important tools for addressing food security and future environmental change.
I am a historian, and history surely offers us, from witch trials to eugenics, numerous examples of how when public misunderstanding and superstition becomes widespread on an issue, irrational policymaking is the inevitable consequence, and great damage is done to peoples’ lives as a result.
This is what has happened with the GMOs food scare in Europe, Africa and many other parts of the world. Allowing anti-GMO activists to dictate policymaking on biotechnology is like putting homeopaths in charge of the health service, or asking anti-vaccine campaigners to take the lead in eradicating polio.
I believe the time has now come for everyone with a commitment to the primacy of the scientific method and evidence-based policy-making to decisively reject the anti-GMO conspiracy theory and to work together to begin to undo the damage that it has caused over the last decade and a half.
On a personal note, let me explain why I am standing here saying this. Believe me, I would much prefer to live a quieter life. However, following my apology for my former anti-GMO activism at my Oxford speech in January, I have been subject to a co-ordinated campaign of intimidation and hate, mostly via the internet.
Even when I was at school I didn’t give in to bullies, and at the ripe old age of 40 I am even less inclined to do so now. Moreover, I have been encouraged by emails and other support from globally-renowned scientists who are experts on this issue, and who all said basically the same thing to me: ‘You think you’ve got hatemail? Welcome to my world’.
I think these scientists are the unsung heroes of this saga. They carried on with their important work and tried year after year to fight against the rising tide of misinformation, while people like me were belittling and undermining them at every turn. I won’t mention names, but they know who they are. Some of them are here today, and I would like to give them my deepest thanks.
So for me also there is also a moral dimension to this. The fact that I helped promote unfounded scare stories in the early stages of the anti-GMO movement in the mid 1990s is the reason why I now feel compelled to speak out against them. I have a personal responsibility to help put these myths to rest because I was so complicit in initially promoting them.
My activism, which I wrongly thought of at the time as being ‘environmental’, has done real damage in the world. For me, apologising was therefore only the beginning. I am now convinced that many people have died unnecessarily because of mistakes that we in the environmental movement collectively made in promoting anti-GMO fear. With that on your conscience, saying sorry and then moving on is not enough. Some restitution is in order.
Following a decade and a half of scientific and field research, I think we can now say with very high confidence that the key tenets of the anti-GMO case were not just wrong in points of fact but in large parts the precise opposite of the truth.
This is why I use the term conspiracy theory. Populist ideas about conspiracies do not arise spontaneously in a political and historic vacuum. They result when powerful ideological narratives collide with major world events, rare occasions where even a tiny number of dedicated activists can create a lasting change in public consciousness.
In the 1960s the conspiracy theories about Kennedy’s assassination reflected the profound feeling that there were shadowy people high up in the CIA and government who were subverting democracy, and fighting the Cold War by devious and deadly means. More recently, conspiracy theories about 9-11 reflected the hatred many on the political Left had for the Bush Administration.
Successful conspiracy theories can do real damage. In Nigeria an outbreak of Muslim conspiracy theorising against the polio vaccination campaign there led to a renewed polio outbreak which then spread to 20 other countries just when the disease was on the brink of being entirely eradicated.
In South Africa during the presidency of Thabo Mbeki the HIV/AIDS denialist myth became official government policy, just as the anti-GMO denialist myth is official European Union policy today. The result in South Africa was that hundreds of thousands of people were denied life-saving anti-retroviral treatments and died unnecessarily.
The anti-GMO campaign has also undoubtedly led to unnecessary deaths. The best documented example, which is laid out in detail by Robert Paarlberg in his book ‘Starved for Science’, is the refusal of the Zambian government to allow its starving population to eat imported GMO corn during a severe famine in 2002.
Thousands died because the President of Zambia believed the lies of western environmental groups that genetically modified corn provided by the World Food Programme was somehow poisonous. I have yet to hear an apology from any of the responsible Western groups for their role in this humanitarian atrocity.
Friends of the Earth was one of those responsible, and I note that not only has no apology been forthcoming, but Friends of the Earth Europe is still actively promoting GMO denialism in the EU in a new campaign called Stop the Crop. Check out their Youtube video to see how they have learned nothing in ten years.
Another well-known example is that of Golden Rice, genetically modified to contain high levels of beta carotene in order to compensate for the vitamin A deficiency which kills hundreds of thousands of children around the world and blinds many more every year. One study on the prospects for Golden Rice in India found that the burden of vitamin A deficiency could be reduced by 60%, saving 1.4 million healthy life years.
Here the actions of Greenpeace in forestalling the use of golden rice to address micronutrient deficiencies in children makes them the moral and indeed practical equivalent of the Nigerian mullahs who preached against the polio vaccine – because they were stopping a lifesaving technology solely to flatter their own fanaticism.
I think this campaign is shameful and has brought the entire environmental movement into disrepute, with damaging consequences for the very beneficial work that many environmentalists do. Greenpeace’s campaign against vitamin A-enhanced Golden Rice should therefore be cancelled, and I call on everyone concerned about children’s health to lobby Greenpeace and demand that this happens immediately and without delay.
The anti-GMO campaign does not even have the benefit of intellectual coherence. If you truly think that herbicide-tolerant biotech crops are an evil plot by Monsanto to achieve a stranglehold on the entire world’s food supply, why would you also oppose all other non-patented and open-source applications of biotechnology, which have nothing to do with Monsanto, apparently without exception? This is like being against all computer software because you object to the dominant position of Microsoft Office.
On a logical basis only a case by case assessment makes sense for deciding how any technology might best be applied. So if you think that Bt corn is bad for US farmers, despite all the evidence to the contrary, it shouldn’t necessarily follow that you also have to ban virus-resistant papaya, or oppose a blight-resistant potato in Ireland.
This matters today more than ever because we are entering an age of increasingly threatening ecological scarcity. The planet is beginning to move outside the envelope of stable temperatures that we have enjoyed for 10,000 years, and into an age of instability and rapid change.
Within just a year from now, global CO2 concentrations will break through the crucial 400 parts per million boundary, marking a change is atmospheric chemistry that is unprecedented for at least 3 million years.
Moreover, we are now on a global emissions path which puts us on track for 4-5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, a transformation which will leave this planet barely recognisable and considerably more hostile to human and other life.
But what about all those who say that global warming is a hoax, a product of thousands of scientists conspiring with governments and the UN to falsify temperature data and usher in a new age of global socialism?
Well, I’ve spent more than a decade arguing with climate sceptics, and in the end I fall back on a single killer argument: that if an overwhelming majority of experts say something is true, then any sensible non-expert should assume that they are probably right.
To make the point, here is the consensus position of the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences on climate change:
“The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in extreme weather, rising sea level, shifts in species ranges, and more. The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.”Oh, but wait – the AAAS has also released another statement of consensus science on another area concerning us today:
“The science is quite clear: crop improvement by the modern molecular techniques of biotechnology is safe… The World Health Organization, the American Medical Association, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the British Royal Society, and every other respected organization that has examined the evidence has come to the same conclusion: consuming foods containing ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming the same foods containing ingredients from crop plants modified by conventional plant improvement techniques.”So, my suggestion today is that a sensible baseline position for environmentalists and indeed everyone else is to accept the consensus science in both these areas. Instead, you have the unedifying spectacle of so-called green groups like the Union of Concerned Scientists stoutly defending consensus science in the area of climate change, while just as determinedly undermining it in the area of biotechnology.
Tellingly, the UCS utilises the exact same techniques as climate sceptics in its enduring and strikingly unscientific campaign against GMOs: it issues impressive reports based on strategic cherry-picking and only referencing its ideological allies in a kind of epistemological closed-loop, it pushes the perspective of a tiny minority of hand-picked pseudo-experts, and it tries to capture and control the public policy agenda to enforce its long-held prejudices.
Many of the most influential denialists like those at the Union of Concerned Scientists sound like experts; indeed they may even be experts. Richard Dawkins tells a story about a professor of geology, who lectured and published papers about stratigraphy in hundred-million year old rocks whilst at the same time being a ‘young-earth’ creationist who really believed the world was only 6,000 years old. His pre-existing religious conviction simply overpowered his scientific evidence-based training.
An even more striking example is Peter Duesberg, the leading light in the AIDS denialist movement, who is a professor of cell biology at the University of California in Berkeley.
Many anti-vaccine campaigners, like Andrew Wakefield, started out as qualified medical professionals. This is why scientific consensus matters – it is the last line of defence we have against the impressive credentials and sciency-sounding language of those who are really on the lunatic fringe.
Speaking of the lunatic fringe, someone else who claims scientific credentials is Vandana Shiva, probably the most prominent Indian anti-biotechnology activist, who incidentally draws much larger audiences than this one to her fiery speeches about the evils of Monsanto and all things new in agriculture. Shiva tweeted after my Oxford speech that me saying that farmers should be free to use GMO crops was like giving rapists the freedom to rape.
That is obscene and offensive, but actually is not the half of it. Let me give you my all-time favourite Vandana Shiva quote, regarding the so-called terminator technology, on which she launches constant blistering attacks without once acknowledging the salient fact that it was never actually developed.
“The danger that the terminator may spread to surrounding food crops or the natural environment is a serious one. The gradual spread of sterility in seeding plants would result in a global catastrophe that could eventually wipe out higher life forms, including humans, from the planet”.Now, I’ve said and done some pretty stupid things in my time, but this one takes some beating. You don’t need the intelligence of a Richard Dawkins or indeed a Charles Darwin to understand that sterility is not a great selective advantage when it comes to reproduction, hence the regular observed failure of sterile couples to breed large numbers of children.
As Shiva’s case so clearly shows, if we reject data-driven empiricism and evidence as the basis for identifying and solving problems, we have nothing left but vacuous ideology and self-referential myth-making. Indeed in many related areas, like nuclear power, the environmental movement has already done great harm to the planet, even as it has rightly helped raise awareness in other areas such as deforestation, pollution and biodiversity loss.
Science tells us today that the coming age of ecological scarcity extends much further than just global warming. If we wish to preserve a semblance of current biodiversity on this planet, for example, we must urgently curtail agricultural land conversion in rainforest and other sensitive areas.
This is why organic agriculture is an ecological dead-end: it is dramatically less efficient in terms of land use, so likely leads to higher rates of biodiversity loss overall. Maybe organic producers should be legally mandated to specify on labels the overall land-use efficiency of their products. I’m all in favour of food labelling by the way when it comes to something important that the consumer should have the right to know.
Of course conventional agriculture has well-documented and major environmental failings, not least of which is the massive use of agricultural fertilisers which is destroying river and ocean biology around the world. But the flip side of this is that intensive agriculture’s extremely efficient use of land is conversely of great ecological benefit.
For example, if we had tried to produce all of today’s yield using the technologies of 1960 – largely organically in other words – we would have had to cultivate an additional 3 billion hectares, the area of two South Americas.
We cannot afford the luxury of romanticised but inefficient agricultural systems like organic because the planet is already maxxed out in terms of both land and water. Our only option therefore is to learn to do more with less. This is known as sustainable intensification – it’s about improving the efficiency of our most ecologically scarce resources.
But remember, everything is changing. Food demand will inevitably skyrocket this half-century because of the twin pressures of population growth and economic development. We need to sustainably increase food production by at least 100% by 2050 to feed a larger and increasingly affluent global population.
This is where the eco-Malthusians tend to pop up, illustrating another uncomfortable aspect of the anti-GMO philosophy. Let me share with you a rather revealing quote I read just a couple of weeks ago on Yale 360, from the US environmental writer Paul Greenberg, where he is lamenting the supposed wrongs of genetically engineered salmon. But forget the fish – when it comes to humans he says the following:
“If we continue to bend the rules of nature so that we can provide more and more food for an open-ended expansion of humans on the planet, something eventually will have to give. Would you like to live in a world of 15 billion people? 20 billion? I would not. And while it’s possible you will label my response as New Age-ish, I feel that GE food distracts us from the real question of the carrying capacity of the planet.”Well, I think that calling these sentiments New Age-ish is to give them far too much credit. I would actually call them misanthropic. What Greenberg seems to be suggesting here, as Paul Ehrlich did before him, is the denial of food to hungry people in order to prevent them breeding more children and contributing to overpopulation.
Luckily this modern-day Malthusianism is wrong in point of fact as well as by moral implication. Firstly, the human population is never going to reach 20 billion. Instead, it is forecast to peak at 9-10 billion and then slowly decline.
Secondly, although we are certainly heading for 9 billion people by mid-century, but that is not because people in poor countries are still having too many babies. The main reason is that children who are born today are much more likely to survive, and become parents themselves.
It is a little-known fact that the global average fertility rate is now down to about 2.4, not far above natural replacement of 2.1. So pretty much all the increased population growth to 2050 will come from more children surviving into adulthood.
And that is surely a good thing. I want to see child death rates in developing countries continue to plummet thanks to better healthcare, access to clean water and sanitation, and all the other benefits the modern world can and should bring to everyone.
No doubt like all of you, I also want to see an end to the scourge of hunger which today affects more people in an absolute sense than ever before in history. It is surely an abomination that in 2013 we can all go to bed each night knowing that 900 million other people are hungry.
This scourge affects children disproportionately – one third of child deaths are attributable to malnutrition. Among those who survive, nutrient deficiencies like iron, zinc and vitamin A can lead to cognitive impairment and other health problems, reducing a child’s life chances for his or her entire future.
It is a truism to say that people are hungry not because there is a global shortage of food in an absolute sense, but because they are too poor to afford to eat. But it is a dangerous fallacy to suggest therefore that because the world on average has enough food, we should therefore oppose efforts to improve agricultural productivity in food insecure countries.
In fact probably the best way to address rural poverty is to ensure that subsistence farmers the world over enjoy more reliable and increasingly productive harvests. This will enable them both to feed their own families and to generate a surplus to sell at a profit so their children can go to school.
Is genetic modification a silver bullet way to achieve this? Of course not. It cannot build better roads or chase away corrupt officials. But surely seeds which deliver higher levels of nutrition, which protect the resulting plant against pests without the need for expensive chemical inputs, and which have greater yield resilience in drought years are least worth a try?
And real-world evidence so far gives grounds for optimism. The use of Bt cotton in China has been shown to dramatically improve biodiversity, unlike broad-spectrum insecticides which kill everything, pests and predators alike. The Bt protein only affects the insects which bore into the crop, is entirely safe for us, and has led to insecticide reductions of 60% in China and 40% in India on cotton.
The introduction of Bt brinjal in India, a project which I know people here in Cornell were closely involved in leading, would have dramatically reduced insecticide poisonings associated with that crop too, had the anti-GMO activists in India not succeeded in preventing its use.
India today seems to be perched on a scientific knife-edge, with a vociferous lobby pushing dark-age traditionalism on the brink of permanently capturing the entire political and legal agenda. If they succeed, hundreds of millions of food-insecure Indians will be the losers.
In Africa too there are a multitude of western-funded NGOs who all claim to be mysteriously protecting biodiversity by keeping cultivated plant genetic improvements permanently out of the continent. In many African countries GMOs are subject to the same kind of de-facto ban as is the case in Europe, leaving poorer farmers at the mercy of a changing climate and exhausted soils.
However, a showdown is looming, because some of the most exciting biotechnology initiatives are now based in African countries. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is putting substantial funding into these efforts – such as improved maize for poorer African soils, a project which is looking to get yield increases of 50% even where fertiliser is not available or the farmer cannot afford to buy it.
There’s also the public-private partnership called Water Efficient Maize for Africa, using biotech to produce drought tolerant corn specifically for African smallholders facing the challenges of a changing climate. There’s C4 rice, aiming to improve the photosynthetic capacity of rice and thereby dramatically increase yields.
Another Gates-funded project is based at the John Innes Centre in the UK and aims by 2017 to have cereal crops which fix their own nitrogen available for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. The list goes on: there’s biofortified cooking bananas in East Africa, and cassava fortified with iron, protein and vitamin A in Nigeria and elsewhere.
I haven’t finished! There’s resistance to cassava brown streak disease, which is currently spreading rapidly and threatens the staple crop for two out of every five people in sub-Saharan Africa.
And of course transgenic technology focused on conferring wheat rust resistance at the molecular level to head off the threat of a global pandemic which could otherwise threaten one of humanity’s most important staple foods.
But if the activists have their way, none of these improved seeds will ever leave the laboratory. And this brings me, by way of conclusion, to the essentially authoritarian nature of the anti-GMO project.
All these activists, strikingly few of whom are themselves smallholder farmers in Africa or India, claim to know exactly which seeds developing country farmers should be allowed to plant. Those which are not ideologically approved by self-appointed campaigners should be banned forever.
The irony here is that predominantly left-wing activists, who are supposedly so concerned about corporate power, are determined to deny the right to choose to the most powerless people in the world – subsistence farmers in developing countries. In fact, this is more than an irony – it is a cruelty. And it is a cruelty which must stop, and stop now.
HG Wells is often quoted as saying that civilization is a race between education and catastrophe. The New Yorker writer Michael Specter, who wrote a great book about anti-science movements called ‘Denialism’, updates this, writing that civilisation is a race between innovation and catastrophe.
This is surely no more true than today, when civilisation is genuinely threatened by the twin catastrophes of climate change and ecological scarcity colliding with vastly greater food demand from a larger and wealthier population.
The solution is the same one that it always was – innovation – the uniquely human capacity to produce new tools which has saved our species so many times before from apparently inevitable Malthusian collapses. Therefore if we reject innovation now of all times we make catastrophe not just likely but probably inevitable.
This was indeed the warning the great Norman Borlaug left us with before he died. To quote:
“If the naysayers do manage to stop agricultural biotechnology, they might actually precipitate the famines and the crisis of global biodiversity they have been predicting for nearly 40 years.”In the final assessment only way that conspiracy theories die is because more and more people begin to wake up to reality and reject them. Then perhaps there comes a tipping point where what was once received wisdom becomes increasingly understood for the foolish nonsense that it always was.
I think – I hope – that we are close to this tipping point today. And now, with just a little extra push, we can all join in consigning anti-GMO denialism to the dustbin of history where it belongs.
40 10
214 comments
Hey, the world’s a crazy place. The human creature is endowed with infinite cleverness and almost zip wisdom.
Genetic engineering is the latest example of this. But unlike past manifestations of our cleverness, genetic engineering represents the first time in history where human decisions have the potential to change life on our planet forever.
I see a pattern here.
The pesticides and toxic waste we’ve created and continue to release into our life support system will take tens and potentially hundreds of generations to be rendered harmless to human and other life.
With nuclear power, we’ve created and continue to release radioactive materials into our life support system that will take thousands if not hundreds of thousands of generations to become safe for unprotected human exposure.
Now comes genetic engineering with potentially infinite consequences.
Given our track record up to now, I don’t believe that the human family is yet conscious enough to be trusted with making potentially forever decisions.
Especially considering some people are:
So insane for money and power that they are capable of doing anything to impose their agenda on the world.
So sure they are doing God’s will that they will do anything to impose their religious agenda on others.
So sure that their ideology is correct that they will do whatever they deem necessary to impose their worldview on the rest of us.
And even when our motives are pure, intelligent, democratic, and totally dedicated to improving the common good, who among us has the wisdom to fully comprehend the ultimate consequences of releasing self-replicating organisms of human creation into our common environment, however noble our motives?
I’m not saying that we should abandon our quest for knowledge in this or any other area.
I’m insisting that for the sake of our youth and future generations, that wisdom and its partner humility should be foremost in our minds and hearts before we choose to unleash whatever our cleverness makes possible.
The human family has lived at least 100,000 generations, each generation being 33 years (enough time for a human to reproduce and raise their child to adulthood). Our job is to ensure that we leave the next 100,000 generations with a healthy, happy, functional world.
Well, some of us, at least. The rest of us fall back on trotting out the same old tired arguments appealing to ‘God’s Will’ or more frequently, ‘Mother Nature’ without actually thinking about what they’re saying. It makes them sound clever, even if they aren’t.
Personally, I also don’t see how Jim’s comments are worthy of derision in this manner. Where I live, within a few hundred miles there are more examples of human folly in each area that Jim mentions above than I could count offhand. Nuclear waste and by products have been released in spite of planning and oversight and no reasonable motivation to allow storage to fail. This leading to cover up for decades, then giving way to evidence of significant and officially recognized, elevated levels of cancer in humans “downstream” from the sites. Foreign species transplanted with good intentions by authorities to resolve environmental issues now out of control and arguably worse than the original concerns. Areas that were formerly inhabited now abandoned due to toxins, with massive investments in simply trying to contain the poisons, with clean up and restoration little more than pipe dreams. The list goes on…
If those aren’t warnings to humanity, then what do you make of them? Because to me, ignoring our past mistakes is like handily winning the Human Stupidity Challenge, taking first place from people who fear what they don’t understand. At least the latter can claim ignorance, and possibly educate themselves – the former have chosen to ignore reality in spite of their education and otherwise intelligent views of the world.
Remember Oppenheimer, if you will, and his surprise and horror at what was done with his work.
By all means let’s hear contrary opinions, but let’s have an informed debate which actually addresses the issues being raised.
This post is interesting, in part because it shows exactly the kind of vague fears with little substantive arguments behind them that has led to opposition to GMO food and nuclear power in the first place.
I’ve never quite understood arguments like “we’re releasing toxins into the environment.” It’s almost like the word “toxins” has become the modern-day equivalent of the word “demons.”
Yes, there are things which are toxic. Not all of them are man-made; nature provides plenty of toxins herself, from arsenic to belladonna plants, and yet somehow we survive.
Especially baffling is the complaint that nuclear power creates things that are toxic for hundreds or thousands of years. Things like arsenic are toxic *forever*. Why are we more afraid of radiation than we are of any of the millions of naturally occurring or man-made toxins that persist until the heat death of the universe? Why is “toxic for hundreds of years” scary to us but “toxic for the rest of eternity” is not? Something weird, and completely irrational, is happening here.
“I have met the enemy…and it is us!”
“Hey, the world’s a crazy place. The human creature is endowed with infinite cleverness and almost zip wisdom.
Can’t you imagine the ways this could go wrong? What if it is uncontrollable, and all the trees become ‘hot’ and turn to ash? What if there’s something in the hot logs that poisons the food?”
Please, people say that to every new thing that comes along. Please go live in a hole and stop trying to force everyone to live in your silly, idealistic past. You are exactly what Mark means by the Neo-Malthusians bringing about their own prophecies.
Since you have the internet, I imagine you also have more than enough food.
Who are you to tell a starving farmer that he cannot have enough food to feed his children and ensure they grow up without permanent scarring from vitamin deficiy?
Who are you to tell a Chinese cotton farmer that in order to make enough money eat, he has to pour chemicals on his crops that are slowly killing him, rather than simply plant Bt crops?
etc etc
Yes, GM, like any technology, has drawbacks and can be misused by megacorps (Roundup Ready anyone?), but so can any technology.
Should we stop using cephalosporin because one of my siblings is deathly allergic, or electricity since idiots stick forks in sockets, or hydro-electric since the Chinese government has some rather dubious planning permission legislation?
Simply put, GM is needed to feed the planet, what with climate change, population growth and preserving as much biodiversity as is possible. So unless you want to volunteer for euthanasia….
I see that myopic view a lot. So I don’t criticize you for taking it. But agriculture doesn’t have to automatically destroy the environment and biodiversity. Sure the conventional model does, but most organic models actually can improve both, especially if the organic model is based on biomimicry.
Secondly organic models actually usually outproduce conventional once the land is healed. Some start outproducing conventional right away.
Thirdly, so far, GMO’s haven’t increased production of food at all. They may increase profit, they may help in other ways, they may even have a good year here and there, but average yields are not higher. At least not yet. The talk about increased yields either is potential, or in some cases creative accounting.
First of all I said food, not cotton.
Second of all you haven’t seen the new figures showing an equal or greater decline in productivity in GMO cotton in India due to sucking insects (unaffected by Bt) and new resistant insects? I said average long term, not temporary gains or losses short term.
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/2006/07/bt-cotton-china-fails-reap-profit-after-seven-years
So your statement is simply wrong. GMOs have increased yields. Period.
http://www.ipni.net/ppiweb/bcrops.nsf/$webindex/70ABDB50A75463F085257394001B157F/$file/07-4p12.pdf
http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/ge-fails-to-increase-yields-0219.html
This isn’t the only article I found that questions the hype of the biotech industry.
Setting the Record Straight” by the same author. In the abstract he states ‘The recent article (April 20, 2008) by Environment Editor Geoffrey Lean in the British newspaper The Independent (>linklink<), shows that “genetic modification actually cuts the productivity of crops”, further
stating that my work “has found that GM soya produces about 10 percent less food than its conventional equivalent.” These statements, among other assertions in Mr. Lean’s article, are ripe for clarification. This brief piece is my attempt to set the record straight before the perversion of my research findings and the resulting backlash go any further. '
Hmmm. he then goes on to say "As for the statement in The Independent that my work shows that “genetic modification actually cuts the productivity of crops”, consider first and foremost that the experiment was not designed to address this question. For example, plots for both varieties were worked over by hand to remove weeds, as we were interested in only studying the effect of Mn on the experiment and not on the effect of weeds in the
crop. Furthermore, the claim that GM soybeans produce 10% less yield than conventional is misleading, in that when the lowest rate of Mn
was applied to GR soybeans there was no yield difference
between the two."
Finally he says ". It is important here to note that this was a very high yielding environment where all other plant nutrients were adequate and irrigation
was available, and that most soybeans worldwide are grown in more moderate yielding environments. So, simply put, it is inappropriate to use the results of my work to make these broad-brush claims."
It is very simple to cherry pick results that suit your narrative and furthermore quote those results out of context to as to shore up your own position on an issue. This is why it's best to look at *all* the results, preferably in the form of a metal-analysis or systematic review. This is effectively what the Mannion paper did. You even call it 'systems thinking', I suppose.
Point still remains. On average the increase in GMO productivity claims for food are a myth. Even your claim isn’t a yield per acre, but only a total yield, 2 very different things. In general standard breeding techniques of hybridization and introgression lines etc.. are what increase productivity of crop cultivars, not GMOs.
Maybe one day they might significantly help, but that is an unknown future.
Very few technologies work perfectly the first time, and the argument used by GM detractors that they don’t and therefore shouldn’t be abandoned would still see us using horses and carts to get around and lighting our homes with tallow candles. Second and third generation GM crops, which benefit the environment and consumers as well as the producers have been slow to materialise but this is almost certainly due in large part to the ridiculous regulatory burdens that have come about largely through tendentious campaigning by NGOs. ‘Unprofitable’ products don’t get to see the light of day.
The answer, I feel, is one based on *science* first, middle and last of all. Take a long cool dispassionate look at the challenged we and the environment will face. Come up with some ideas that might work: a combination of science-based organic farming and second generation GMOs, such as say the Rothamsted wheat approach that repels aphids rather than killing them, and apply them to situations that will need new approaches, such as those Indian cotton farmers who having dealt with bollworm are now suffering from a plague of sucking insects. We are quite capable of doing this, being a very bright species, and devising a new hybrid agriculture that benefits producers, consumers and the environment. The only thing standing in our way is *dogma*.
As I said before to Lynas, I do not believe the catastrophic human made climate change conjecture. Unassigned general statements by scientific bodies, even venerable ones, have a clear undertone of politics and are no substitution for the hard facts. Unfortunately we will have to wait a lot more to have this clear up.
[MD PhD working at the Brazilian GMO clearinghouse]
The consensus view is that transgenics are not harmful or dangerous per se. But the technology does have the possibility of creating things that are harmful. It is therefore reasonable to have a certain level of regulation and caution, not only for public safety but for the health of the industry lest a few dramatic accidents (the bio equivalent of TMI, Chernobyl and Fukushima) result in shutting down the industry for good. (I’m not saying there is much likelihood of a Chernobyl or Fukushima-scale biotech disaster that results from an accident. But accidents could have a comparable political impact, and intentional misuse could have comparable or greater actual impact.)
On the other hand, climate disruption due to CO2 and other anthropogenic gas levels is completely clear and a matter of scientific consensus. There is some doomsday hyperbole suggesting there’s nothing we can do about it, but there is no question about the fact that it is a serious challenge which requires a huge commitment to meet and that will have catastrophic consequences if we ignore it.
This is what the consensus science says. Now, consensus science isn’t always right, and it can be distorted by institutional biases. But it’s the best we have, and by now it’s pretty good. The institutional biases are increasingly obvious in the modern world, and there is enough communication and enough scientific activity that with a good faith effort an intelligent person can usually come to a confident conclusion on big ideological controversies like these. One side is doing science, the other is denying.
The problem is as with all these issues where billions are at stake is who to trust?
Technology is neutral, but that doesn’t mean we have to be ambivalent.
You can read about the successes that GM crops have already achieved, and you support those who are doing worldwide good with them, by reducing starvation, famine, malnutrition, and environmental destruction. For instance, Norman Borlaug was an outspoken proponent of GM foods. His work in the field of genetic engineering had already saved over a billion lives by 1970. That’s at least 1,000,000,000 people who didn’t starve to death because we were eating newer, more productive, more disease-resistant crops.
Does the anti-GMO camp know about his work? Do they care? Do they listen to what he had to say about GM foods? No. If they know about Borlaug at all, they dismiss it out-of-hand.
On the other side, you can also look at the anti-GMO literature. Can you find any evidence that people are being poisoned by GMOs? No, you can not. Instead, you just find ignorant fear-mongering by people pushing a fundamentalist “food religion” on the world.
You just have to get beyond the hype and do a little bit of research. You’ll find pretty quickly who you can trust to do good. They’re the people who are already doing good.
One group is the “bad food” group, who believe that GMO foods are under-tested or somehow unsafe.
The other group is the “bad economics” group, who believe that GMO foods are probably as safe as any other kind of food, but have a problem with big agribusiness and big seed companies monopolising food and suing farmers for carrying out normal farming practices.
Both groups of course sometimes move over into conspiracy theory territory. I think the fault here is partly that the “bad food” also adopt “bad economics” arguments, and partly that the “bad economics” group fail to see the big picture.
The big picture, of course, is that it’s not just GMO foods that are the problem here. There is a general problem with lobbyists and political corruption, and also with abuse of the patent system to sue small competitors (e.g. farmers who choose not to buy GM seed) out of the market. And agribusiness and GMO seed companies are just acting rationally in a dysfunctional economic environment.
So that’s what really needs to be fixed, not GMO foods.
AS for organic farming …”The deserts of Iraq and the middle east are the result of 10,000 years of organic framing”…:-)
What you mean is that ‘organic agriculture’ as specified by the Steiner movement didn’t exist before 1940. But people were doing it well before then.
Mark has admitted his ignorance of the time, and partially corrected that mistake. Now if he could just educate himself on the real benefits of organic and promote that instead.
I think Mark’s main concern is that organic agriculture is being promoted as a panacea. It isn’t mainly because nothing promoted as such ever lives up to the hype. And that goes for GM too. There will be effective and not so effective applications of both, but practitioners have to be given the license to experiment and to make mistakes…on the understanding that they learn by them.
Exactly. Genetic engineering is something we now can, in a limited way do.
The question is what should we do with it? Of itself it could be used to – for example – find new ways to create organisms that create medicines. Or genetically engineer a virus that kills half the world.
There is nothing intrinsically good or bad about biotech. Its what its used FOR. dynamite ad other high explosives allowed us to kill thousands on the battlefield and also to tunnel through mountains.
Its is this naive and silly labelling of whole technologies as ‘good’ or ‘bad’ that is so pernicious and so childlike. And its done because people have their own private emotional narratives about the world, caste in terms of cartoon figures of Good and Evil, and every single thing has to be fitted into one or the other characteristic likes some mediaeval Christian morality play.
Grow up chaps. The only think more stupid than not thinking through the possible negative impacts of GM crops is tarring them with a black brush and neglecting to investigate the possibilities at all.
I am sick to death of people arguing from whatever position supports their limited concept of what the world is, and selecting just the evidence and the spin that props up their worldviews, so they can pat themselves on the back and say ‘there: I was right’
In my experience, thats is the quickest way to ensure you are in fact wrong.
But I do think that the basis for organic is the solution for agriculture in that it incorporates systems thinking instead of reductionism, cycles instead of single product systems
I have always been able to use organic methods to out produce conventional. But the interesting thing for me is watching over the last 30 years while conventional BMP gradually and slowly, but consistently, adopt more and more of the methods developed by organic innovators. The two types of agriculture are actually merging. You are correct there.
On the other hand, I learned a great deal about the environmental dangers of GMO agriculture from the writings of Jane Rissler. She would have to be counted as a GMO opponent but she acknowledges the successes and shows appreciation for the caution that has been taken to avoid environmental problems. So I think I can trust her.
The one instrument and technology that has changed the world the most is attached to that keyboard in front of you now. We are now instantly connected, interactive, learning together. Health care has brought our life spans to new highs with amazing new diagnostic methods and improved therapies. I could go on and on about how the human family has been a brilliant steward of technology.
There are bumps in that road. Use of nuclear weapons has been widely decried. Environmental disasters like DDT and others were halted, we learned, we corrected. Rivers once dead are alive. We make decisions with a consciousness that was not there years ago. We have a long way to go, but I think technology helps us be better caretakers of the planet.
There are successes. Nuclear power serves many in a carbon-free manner. DNA-based technologies now help diagnose and treat disease. We put a man on the moon 40 years ago. C’mon, this is good stuff.
We also have unprecedented means to predict and test for adverse effects of our technology. Genetic engineering is hardly a new science. We know more about how it works and its effects than ever. Our ability to detect problems, were they to occur, is amazing.
So unlike you I feel that our track record as a civilization is pretty awesome. Our handle on technology is great and the benefits massively outweigh risks.
Where we fail is in the deployment of technology. How can we use technology to get food, medicines, water, fuels to those that desperately need it? Once that is satisfied, how do we get them connected with educational resources and the best information?
Our job is to ensure that we leave the next 100,000 generations with a healthy, happy, functional world. Health, happiness and function will come from our understanding and implementation of science and technology.
you are incorrect that the food companies one main objective is to make the technology very expensive in the absence of any route to risk in terms of the biology involved. Have you ever read any of these companies public comments on regulations? Their goal is to have resonable regulations to ensure public safety. Food companies continually argue against unnecessary regulations. It is the anti-technology organization that misinform to scare the public and lobby for increased regulations. There are the ones keeping the technology out of the hands of more companies by making the cost of regulatory approvals financially unobtainable to most. It is also why the majority of the technology focuses on the big commodity crops. Because of regulatory costs, there is not enough return on investment with small market crops, although these crops, especially vegetables and fruit, could benefit greatly from traits like virus resistance.
I got this argument from an article by expert Henry I Miller (2001) “The Biotechnology Industry’s Frankensteinian Creation” that you can find at the site of the Competitive Enterprise Institute. I said that is an important aspect usually forgotten. A GM plant is modified with a few known genes with known gene products. A mutagenized plant gets dozens of unknown mutations and we have more than 2,000 on our tables. Is that more safe than a GM plant? What is the biological basis of the present regulatory excess? About that Potrykus (GM rice) has a short and sharp in Nature 446:561 (2010). About the rest of your post I think the same.
Right to know is good. But you are wrong about organic methods. Already on average the science of organic agriculture has caught, and in many cases surpassed conventional best management methods. In fact that is why conventional agriculture has started integrating organic methods into conventional agriculture, just to try and keep up. It may not be called “certified organic” because some few chemical inputs will probably be used from time to time, but the clear and indisputable trend is towards organic because it is far far more sustainable, far far more productive long term, and far far less damaging to the environment. In fact, in many cases organic methods have been shown to improve the environment and biodiversity instead of harm it.
As far as GMO’s go. They never should have been banned from organic agriculture in the first place. Since they are banned, due to political pressure from fanatics that didn’t understand agricultural science, such as yourself, we have to live with it. But make no mistake, organic can and will continue to take an ever larger % of the market share, and no campaign to bad mouth organic will change that. People know the truth. Once the truth is out, you can’t put that genie back in the bottle. Any common consumer who wants to grow a tomato in their back yard, can do it organically with not problems at all. It has reached the tipping point when anyone can buy Bacillus thuringiensis for a wide range of caterpillar control, a whole host of Mycorrhizal spores for gaining productivity; Various other bacterial products for nitrogen fixation, disease control, pest control, carbon sequestration etc etc etc; Massive advances in soil science, biomimicry and systems thinking. Common availability of the most productive hybrids that don’t sacrifise quality. And what is the biggest benefit? The farmer gains higher profits with less external inputs, while improving his farm and the environment instead of poisoning it.
I have read your statements repeatedly. You seem to continually promote this this false premise that agriculture always destroys the land, and that conventional agriculture outproduces any other methods, so therefore we must use conventional agriculture or else destroy more virgin land.
Your premises are false, therefore any conclusions you draw from it are also probably false.
1) Agriculture always destroys the land….false. There are many organic methods that actually heal the land AND restore the important ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, cleaning water and decomposition of wastes.
2) Conventional agriculture out produces organic…false. That is a broad statement based on ignorance of the new modern scientific advances in agricultural science. At one time conventional did have a slight advantage in some areas, but it was always over stated and now isn’t true at all in most cases. The advantage conventional agriculture has is in productivity per farmer, NOT productivity per acre.
3) Conventional agriculture’s use of GMOs improves productivity…False. On average since GMO’s have been introduced into conventional agriculture, productivity per acre has actually dropped. Again, the advantage is profits per farmer, and profits to all the associated industries, but NOT in productivity per acre.
4) Organic agriculture can’t feed the world….False. Not only can it feed the world, it is probably the only long term solution to a growing population.
You have been fooled by a mega industry’s propaganda campaign designed to try and halt the ever increasing loss of market share the organic market is capturing. But no matter how hard you try, or the industry tries, it won’t work. Not only that, once the organic market share reaches a certain tipping point economies of scale will kick in, and the price for organic will be dramatically CHEAPER than conventional. Already it is less if hidden costs are included. Once the consumer price is less,even without including hidden costs, your words will fall on deaf ears. The market still grows steadily at a slightly higher consumer price, once the price is less, it will explode.
You would be far better served in trying to reconcile GMO’s with organic agriculture and see if they can be incorporated in a safe way. Because in my lifetime I expect organic to be the dominant form of agriculture world wide. You made a mistake. You assumed organic was the same as traditional, when it was always, since its inception, science based. Fair enough. We all make mistakes. But now is the time to stop bad mouthing the science of organic agriculture and instead use your efforts to reconcile genetic science and technology with organic science and technology. Why you? Because you are one of the leaders of the activists that caused the rift in the first place.
Sincerely,
Scott
Nice sentiment. Too bad the data don’t agree:
http://appliedmythology.blogspot.com/2013/04/six-reasons-organic-is-not-most.html
http://www.biofortified.org/2011/02/todays-organic-yesterdays-yields/
First of all that first blog you referenced has so many fallacies and 1/2 truths it is not usable at all. The second one has some factual information and is usable, but limited in scope.
You need to use a systems thinking approach to understand that. Number one. The majority of corn, soy, and other grains are for non-human consumption. Livestock being the largest, followed by various other uses. The organic method that beats this typically doesn’t even use corn or soy at all, or if it does, at VERY much reduced levels. Because a functioning healthy grassland produces far more biomass than corn and soy. Modern methods like Managed Intensive Rotational Grazing or Holistic management, done properly, can produce 5 times or more per acre than traditional conventional grazing models, typically showing at least a 50% to 100% gain in just the first year, and gradually increasing over time.
It is true that CAFO’s also beat conventional grazing models, up to about 4 times more in a good year. But once the grassland is healed and producing good, grassland still beats the conventional CAFO model, EVEN when some grain inputs are used. (typically far less to none).
The second part missed in the articles is a common misconception made by many. Mark being one who has admitted his mistake….partially. Organic agriculture ALWAYS was scientific from its inception in the early 1940′s. Sir Albert Howard was a botanist and Gabrielle Louise Caroline Howard was a plant physiologist and economic botanist. They were both formally trained at Cambridge. And as the science of organic agriculture has advanced, unfortunately many claiming to be “organic” and sometimes even “certified organic” actually are not organic at all. Instead they are “traditional”. Organic is no more “traditional” than “green revolution” is traditional. Both borrow heavily from traditional, but neither are traditional. For example System of Rice Intensification (SRI) differs more from traditional rice production than BMP “green revolution” rice production. Yields more too. In fact it yields so much more that many conventional farmers are integrating SRI into their conventional fields. In fact nearly all conventional agriculture has borrowed HEAVILY from advances made by organic agricultural science.
Why does this matter? Because those statistics quoted are NOT comparing modern organic methods to modern best management (conventional). To get an idea of that you’ll need to actually compare like to like. One place to find THAT kind of comparison is the Rodale Institute. http://66.147.244.123/~rodalein/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/FSTbookletFINAL.pdf
“…unfortunately many claiming to be “organic” and sometimes even “certified organic” actually are not organic at all. Instead they are ‘traditional’”.
In other words, when you use the word “organic” it means just what you choose it to mean. The organics organization in my state chooses it to mean that you can use homeopathy to treat livestock.
You can have your organics movement. I will stick to the methods that work for me on my farm, whether they involve crop rotation, nutrient recycling, pesticides or fertilization.
“You casually dismiss the work of an agricultural scientist with over thirty years of experience and instead cite The Rodale Institute?”
http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2009/02/malthus-pyramid-schemes-starvation.html
William
The rich countries are becaming more and more overconcerned about food safety and no trace of pesticides and sometimes also “sustainability”.
I would aggree that there will be more and more organic grown food but by big companies, in multi-story buildings shielded from the outside world and pests by all kinds of screens.
A good example is “no till”. This is an agricultural breakthrough developed by organic. It was so successful that wise people in conventional agriculture modified it slightly by using round up (and later GMO resistant to round up crops) and borrowed the technique for conventional use. Yet many so called “organic” farmers still don’t even use “no till” and it was invented and developed for organic use!
Another good example is Bacillus thuringiensis. A fantastic advance in biological control developed for organic. So successful in certain insect control that it easily beat any chemical insecticides in overall risk to benefit analysis. So conventional agriculture borrowed some of those genes and made GM Bt crops. Yet many so called “organic” large producers are not using Bacillus thuringiensis and instead spray toxic plant extracts like nicotine instead! That’s no better than or very little better than the chemical company sprays.
Another good example is animal husbandry. Organic farmers have developed several grazing management systems that beat the stockyards and CAFO’s hands down. Yet many of the large so called “organic” producers still raise their livestock in the same barns they always did, with the exception of a short period they sometimes have “access” to limited pasture. No matter than a hen house with 40,000 birds may have the majority that never stepped on foot outside through that “access”. The “access” was there so they can technically call themselves “certified organic” when actually they are not.
Sorry, but I believe you are wrong. The future is not the “pseudo organic” big producers. That is a scam that entered the industry due to government interference. The future is in actual science based modern organic which can best be described as biomimicry. As our knowledge of ecosystem interactions increases through science, our ability to make organic agricultural models using that science will also increase.
Sincerely,
Scott
The answer is that organic farming has taken on idelogical overtones. To ideologues, means matter far more than ends.
But if you mean why can’t organic farmers use GM crops in any circumstances, even if they are the best available solution? As Mark Lynas. He and thousands of other activist leaders are the ones who got GM crops banned from organic agriculture to begin with. I personally thought that move by the activist leaders was foolish. But that is just an opinion by a single organic grower (35 years now). My opinion didn’t count for much when they decided that. When I started growing food, there were no GM crops. It was a non issue. I personally was hopeful in the new technology, as were most my friends who grew organically. Then the hippy activists who never farmed a day in their lives, neither organically nor conventionally decided that policy for us organic growers by applying political pressure to the government. Whether we liked it or not, once the government got involved, we had no choices anymore. Not that I am too worried about it. I can very easily out produce conventional methods anyway. But it would be nice if I had that freedom to choose, assuming in some future time the genetics people ever did actually make a GM crop that would be useful.
There are three kinds of people who set themselves up as authorities. There are people who tell the truth, there are those who know what they’re saying is untrue (the liars), and those who don’t know whether what they’re saying is true but say it anyway. I’ve heard these referred to as the BSers. Then I think we possibly have a fourth category: those who say something believing it to be true without having really thought it through at all. I’m not really sure whether you’re in the third or fourth category yet.
Meanwhile there are many strains of Bacillus thuringiensis with MANY Cry toxins in each bacteria. It is orders of magnitude more difficult for a pest to spontaneously develop simultaneous immunity to multiple toxins at once.
As far as not knowing what I am talking about and trying to box me into one of your fail categories. Nothing more than a lame argumentum ad hominem. Unworthy of serious response.
So, allowing for the fact that BT toxin single use can cause resistance, tell me how new crops which express multiple toxins are somehow inferior to having to spray?
The mode of action for Bacillus thuringiensis is when the caterpillar eats a leaf that contains the bacteria. Inside the stomach the cry toxins are deadly to target species, and harmless to others.
Since the live bacteria reproduce in the digestive tract of the caterpillar and each bacteria produces a large number of different kinds of cry toxins, it is nearly impossible for a caterpillar to spontaneously develop immunity. They just get sicker and sicker until they die.
A GM Bt crop on the other hand may only have 1 or 2 Cry toxin genes spliced to its DNA and may not be producing enough cry toxins to completely kill the caterpillar. This means it is far more likely for a target species to develop immunity. And even if it only has partial immunity may end up surviving by simply finding something else to eat.
I still don’t believe that spraying BT is going to be more effective than engineering it in. It’s like the difference between disinfecting a hospital to get rid of an epidemic and vaccinating against it.
And you can find exceptions BTW on both sides. I fully admit that. I have found them myself in my own fields.
But as a general rule, in my experience, organic methods are far superior overall.
I don’t want to knock GM Bt crops too much though. I actually think it is a far better use of GM technology than say Glyphosate resistant crops.
What do you think about GM crops that benefit primarily the consumer, sucha s Golden Rice? These are likely to be grown organically anyway. Do you think it is possible to overcome the objections of the organic fundamentalists to such crops and, if so, how?
Because there is little need for vitamin A when you grow companion crops and multi crop, multi product systems.
The reason golden rice has a place, is only in the context of a mono-crop system.
Technically, by certification regulations, it is possible to be a monocrop farmer and still call yourself “certified organic”.
But that kind of so called “organic” really is kind of ridiculous. However, no matter how you farm, organic or conventional, there is always that consumer that either is too poor to afford multiple foods, or too ignorant about nutrition to know to eat a balanced diet. For those consumers, golden rice can be a good thing.
Personally I sincerely believe a far better option is growing sweet potatoes, or something like that which stores well and provides more balanced nutrition in addition to rice. In the meantime, I guess golden rice is better than nothing.
What about NO pesticide?
Bt is an insecticide, by the way, and regulated as such, and the crystalline protein that kills the larva is a chemical. Not that there is anything wrong with that, mind you, but it’s entertaining that you call it a “biological control.”
It goes on and on, but if the majority of the premises are false, then yes the whole argument derived from those premises are also likely false. The one 1/2 bit of truth he got right was the failure of the USDA to properly define organic. The government messed that up badly. Partly due to fringe activist groups that were ignorant of the fact that organic always was scientific from the beginning.
OH and by the way. Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is a bacteria. Of course it is a biological control. Your other comments about Bt and its toxins being a chemical or pesticide are simply a logic fallacy called equivocation. ie Using a term with more than one meaning or sense by glossing over which meaning or sense is intended at a particular time.
“Organic agriculture is the oldest form of agriculture on earth. Farming without the use of petroleum-based chemicals (fertilizers and pesticides) was the sole option for farmers until post-World War II.”
Old or modern? Which is it?
From the National Organic Program:
“In general, synthetic substances are prohibited unless specifically allowed and non-synthetic [i.e.natural] substances are allowed unless specifically prohibited.”
Natural inputs, or not?
Like a religion, the acolytes cannot agree which cult is the One True Way.
The “acolytes” confusion lies in the fact that the Howards (he and his wife) scientifically studied these ancient methods (and newer ones at the time) and painstakingly separated the spiritualism and pseudo science out, while keeping the parts that had a scientific basis, and called the resulting form of agriculture “organic” (a term he coined himself as it applies to agriculture)
I learned a good deal about this face of the organic movement that I was unawares. Recommend any book or site for reference? Appreciate your notion that GM plants are every bit organic as a Rachel Carson dream. The usual organic thinking fiercely refuses this out of ignorance as you and others (for example Stewart Brand) know.
If you could order a useful GM plant for organic agriculture what would you request?
About the different Bt proteins, scientists are stacking up more distinct cry proteins to increase the diversity. But to get the same results using a spray of Bt spores you have to grow the individual strains, as many as you can muster, mix and apply. To my knowledge they have done that with up to 4 strains, something that the new GM plants also carry. Also we got to go over the simplistic notion that “chemicals” are a danger. Water is a killer toxin if you drink too much (you die of brain damage due to hyponatremia). Plants defend thenselves through chemicals: they produce incredible amounts of substances against bacteria, fungi, worms, animals and other competing plants. Bruce Adams in a famous PNAS paper in the 90′s showed that 99.99% of all pesticides consumed by americans came from the plants in the diet and not from applied pesticides.
Go to the site of The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and you can get the pdf of ” Dietary pesticides (99.99% all natural) PNAS 87:7777-7781 (1990)
I can send you the pdf (francisco.nobrega@gmail.com). Bruce Ames site has a precious table where he lists most cancer causing chemicals: synthetic and “natural” with the usual concentrations of exposure. Remember my request
Partial immunity can give a survivabilty advantage to an insect eating a Bt crop, even the most modern ones with 4 cry toxins, because the larval insect can potentially survive by simply leaving and finding something else to eat.
There are several insects like army worms that instinctively do just that. Pass their partial immunity to the next generation, eventually developing full immunity.
The chances to develop immunity are orders of magnitude different.
As far as your question of what I would look for in a GM if it was available to organic farmers? I would personally look for a GM that essentially takes a disease resistance from an edible wild relative of the crop I am growing without having to use introgression lines or where introgression lines don’t exist.
For example: Take a specific gene for producing solasodine from a Litchi Tomato (Solanum sisymbriifolium) and use it in a domestic tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) to give tomatoes a strong natural resistance to many pests and diseases. I could see using something like that once proven both safe and stable, if the regulatory agencies would get off my back.
I would be far less enthusiastic about the gene transfer from a poisonous plant or a completely unrelated species, because in my mind, the risk for unintended consequences and unexpected interactions would be far greater.
Keep in mind I am in no rush. Introgression lines work in many cases anyway. It just takes a lot longer. There may not be introgression lines between Solanum sisymbriifolium and Solanum lycopersicum that I know of, but there are two introgression lines Solanum Lycopersicoides and Juglandifolium that work between domestic tomatoes and many other wild tomatoes.
As far as resource material. The list is very long. What type of information are you looking for? The history of organic science? Or modern breakthroughs?
A good book for the history is “Organic farming: an international history”, edited by W. Lockeretz, one nice cutting edge breakthrough can be found here: http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/33703/title/Fighting-Microbes-with-Microbes/
But there are so many it is hard to know what you are more interested in.
Thanks for your help and answers. All I need is some general reference about the wonderful perspectives that you announced in your comment. I looked for the book at Amazon and found one copy left and no reader comment! There, as an example, I saw the book: Mini Farming: Self-Sufficiency on 1/4 Acre [Paperback] by Brett L. Markham. This book got 180 reviews, I wonder if you reviewed this one. The The Scientist article I read some time ago and is very interesting. Medicine found out also that there are beneficial and harmful bugs in our intestines and some enteric diseases have been cured by injecting the healthy mixture.
I think we are on the same page, especially scientifically. I work in our Regulatory Policy group at Monsanto. I believe Henry Miller thinks that biotech crops are way overregulated. Monsanto is certainly not opposed to regulation. We believe it is important to ensure public confidence in the safety of our crops. Safety studies by the developing companies is often view with skepticism so review by government agencies and independent University scientists is important. We have seen the data requirements increase dramatically over the past 15 years even though there is no identified risks from these crops. We have known for years that overregulation would results in decrease opportunity for small businesses and even University scientists to develop biotech crops. Because of activists scaremongering, this has become reality. As someone that was raised in an agricultural town surrounded by cotton, soybean, wheat and rice, this is really disappointing.
The author also doesn’t talk about the repercussions of growing GM crops. There are new pesticide resistant bugs and theories that GM crops are related to the disappearance of the bees. We may be creating new problems faster than we are solving them! If the studies showing long-term organ damage from GM crops are correct we are also going to have a big problem. It will make smoking look positively healthy!
Also, look at GM salmon. IF GM salmon gets into the wild, there’s a high likelihood that the GM salmon will at least partially wipe out the natural salmon population. Another really scary proposition, to be sure.
Are all GM crops bad? Probably not. And while there may be good uses for GM crops (to support an overpopulated earth is a great example) we need to be careful about the politics, the business and the use of GM crops.
Regarding organ failure/tumor development in experimental animals fed with GM crops, I’m guessing you’re referring to the work of Seralini and co-workers in France. His published study last year (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278691512005637) has been the subject of much discussion and at the moment the consensus seems to be that the study is seriously flawed (if you click the link you will find a long list of “letter to the editor”-type responses). The three main criticisms if I remember correctly was that (1) they used a special strain of mice that are very prone to developing tumors, (2) the number of mice in the study was too low for proper statistical analysis and (3) the statistics that were used in the study was not up to scratch. Again, I’m not 100 % on the details but you can read the responses to the paper on the page I’ve linked to.
Mate I am afraid that your comment is flawed. It sounds like the classic anti-progress lets-all-join-hands-and-run-naked-on-the-prairie idealisation of the past. Let’s forget that for 100,000 generations life expectancy was 25 years.
Men already radically changed life in our planet 10,000 years ago -in neolithic times- with the invention of agriculture. Perhaps men also radically changed it in palaeolithic times causing the mass extinction of big mammals (that can be debated).
Britain hasn’t had a wilderness for over 2000 years. All present forests are man made. The surface of cultivated land in 1947 was the same as in the peak of the Iron Age.
If people with your ideas had prospered in the past of human kind (and they clearly didn’t) we would have never left Africa; who knew what terrible things awaited out there in the big unknown. We would never have dared to hunt mammoths; who knew how dangerous that could be. We would have never invented agriculture; who knew what horrible effects it would have in our health. The list of fears could go on and on.
If you chose to leave in an idealised past that never happened that is your choice. Human kind on the other hand, has the right and the necessity to continue making progress to face new challenges.
There is nothing intrinsically wrong with technology if it is carefully and thoroughly tested. Most cleaver crops (GM crops) have passed the safety test. There is nothing wrong in using them.
Of course I suppose he could be a Trojan Horse of some sort…
In any case he’s a (relatively) high profile journalist, your concern should be with his blatant LIES, not anonymous internet posters’ real identities, or is that what you spend your day doing? Why don’t you go around this blog demanding every poster reveal their real names?
“In its policy document on GM foods, written in 1999, the BMA says: “We cannot at present know whether there are serious risks to the environment or to human health involved in producing GM crops or consuming GM food products … and adverse effects are likely to be irreversible.”
In particular, the BMA fears antibiotic-resistance genes, which act as “markers” in GM crops, could spread to bacteria, making them resistant to antibiotics. The report also says some GM foods might cause allergies. Neither fear has been substantiated so far.”
And it then goes on to say:
“Delegates at the summit from other African nations want Zambia to review its position, saying the BMA is at odds with other bodies. “The American Medical Association backs GM food, as does the Royal Society in Britain, the Third World Academy of Sciences and the Food and Agriculture Organization,” says Jocelyn Webster, the South African head of AfricaBio, an organisation promoting African biotechnology.”
But of course, Greenpeace and FotE would have put the BMS straight, wouldn’t they? Like hell they would.
“New Scientist has now been told that Zambia was influenced predominantly by negative advice about GM foods from the BMA. The claim comes from Luke Mumba, a senior molecular biologist at the University of Zambia in Lusaka who is attending a summit on farming in Brussels.
Mumba says that before the Zambian government made its decision on the American maize it asked a group of prominent scientists to compile a report on the pros and cons of accepting it. And although the scientists interviewed 150 organisations and researchers around the world, they seemed to have been most heavily influenced by the BMA.
“In Zambia, they are always citing the BMA as the reason [for the decision]. They say that the BMA has no confidence in the safety of GM foods.” The association is considered an authoritative body because of Zambia’s historical links with Britain, Mumba says.”
So Lynas assertion is incorrect.
‘Friends of the Earth International, on the basis of the precautionary principle, supports the right of any country to impose a moratorium or ban on the introduction of GMOs into the environment and the food chain, until GMOs have been proven safe through comprehensive and independently conducted assessments.’
– foei.org, June 2003
‘Zambia made a brave choice to preserve their agricultural heritage and its future.’ [...] ‘If the choice really was between GE grain and starvation then clearly any food is the preferable option but that’s a false and cynical picture of the choice in this situation.’
– Greenpeace.org, 30 Sept 2002
Looks like Lynas was telling the truth after all.
“Thousands died because the President of Zambia believed the lies of western environmental groups that genetically modified corn provided by the World Food Programme was somehow poisonous.”
His words are directly contradicted by the New Scientist article you yourself have quoted from. The fact that Greenpeace & FoE applauded the Zambian decision has nothing to do with Lynas’ incorrect accusation.
I wonder if FoE will act on an accusation that they are complicit in the supposed deaths of thousands (which of course didn’t actually occur)?
“Despite the dire situation it faced in 2002, Zambia managed to cope with the crisis without GM food aid. In 2003, Zambia even produced a bumper crop of non-GM maize. Production of maize (a staple food) was estimated at 1.16m tonnes – almost double compared with 2002 and about 28 per cent above the average for the past five years.xlii”
What’s more, the US used the crisis to try to force GM food aid on an unsuspecting & desperate public:
“In October 2002 the Heads of States from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) declared that its member states had a right to accept or reject GMO food aid grain.xxxviii Notwithstanding, this right to choose was in fact, seriously impaired. The US and the WFP told those African countries that imposed restrictions or bans that they should accept some GM content. Often in this context the question was put “It is better to die than to eat GM food?” which is misleadingly presented a stark choice between starving or eating GM food donated from the US. An unnamed US official was even quoted as saying “Beggars can’t be choosers.”xxxix
This lack of choice was nothing less than political ‘arm twisting’. Alternative non-GM stocks of food aid could have been made available to those countries. Research from the FAO at the time showed that enough non-GM maize and non-GM cereals were readily available from the African region itself. Food was also available from India and Mexico. Indeed, non-GM maize was also available from the US itself.
It must be noted that that at the time of the crisis, the WFP/FAO Mission to Zambia in May 2002 only assessed the 2002 cereal production.xl The “need assessments” and food deficit calculations did not take into account available supplies of non-cereal foods despite the fact that 30 per cent of the population in Zambia eats cassava as staple food.
The WFP failed to take into account surplus supplies of cassava in the country. Civil society groups estimated there were around 300,000 tonnes of surplus cassava available in northern parts of the country. A member of the National Association of Peasants and Small Scale Farmers in Zambia, Charles Musonda, said there was a long history of using cassava as a key crop for food security in Zambia as it was drought resistant, easier to grow and had a host of other commercial uses. Mr. Musonda said that “This is a win-win situation, people are fed and happy, our produce is bought, we are solvent and able to grow food for the next season. What could be better?” xli”
GM food aid: Africa denied choice again? Earthlife Africa, 2004
available here: http://www.eldis.org/go/home&id=15385&type=Document#.UX–F8qGb2U
It should be noted that even pro-GM Professor David King, then the UK’s chief scientific adviser, launched a blistering attack on US policies re Zambian food aid:
Observer 1 Sep 2002
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,784262,00.html
“· A rift between the UK and the US over genetically modified foods erupted last night when Blair’s chief scientific adviser denounced the United States’ attempts to force the technology into Africa as a ‘massive human experiment’.
In a scathing attack on President Bush’s administration, Professor David King also questioned the morality of the US’s desire to flood genetically modified foods into African countries, where people are already facing starvation in the coming months.”
And according to New Scientist, “the main reason behind Zambia’s decision to reject food aid in 2002″ was “doubts over the safety of genetically modified foods voiced by the British Medical Association” http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn3317
Nothing to do with Lynas’ pretend erstwhile buddies.
The two issues I have the Zambia episode (with the still limited unbiased information available to me) is that on one hand it is impractical that by law US food aid has to be in the form of actual food items from the US instead of funds to buy food but at the same time that food had been consumed by the American population for eight years at that point. I think a deciding factor in the Zambian government’s rejection of the GM corn/maize was actually the fear that farmer would try to plant some of the seed, which would in turn threaten Zambian agricultural exports to the EU (Robert Paarlberg talks about this in his book). I seem to remember that the Zambian government would have been more willing to accept the GM corn if it had first been milled into flour (but I could be confusing African nations – again it’s in Paarlberg’s book).
The ‘opinion’ happened to be that of the pro-GM chief scientific advisor to the British government.
The third link works fine for me, & both myself & Clyde have quoted from it extensively – have a look at our other posts. There’s no question whatsoever that the Zambian govt’s decision was primarily influenced by the BMA.
As for the Zambian situation, the most salient point & one which appears to be beyond dispute is simply this – thousands of people DID NOT DIE! I can’t find ANY substantiation of this claim ANYWHERE.
Sorry for shouting, but unless Lynas can back up his assertion, the claim that 1000s died is nothing short of scandalous.
I am neither pro nor anti GMO. I am however rabidly anti-ideological. When people resort to exporting their ideologies to other countries I like to ask myself: what have they got at stake here? In the case of Greenpeace, the answer is nothing compared to the Zambians. They should butt out and let these people make up their own minds.
“In the early 1950s, the Dayak people of Borneo suffered from malaria. The World Health Organization (WHO) had a solution: it sprayed large amounts of DDT to kill the mosquitoes that carried the malaria. The mosquitoes died; the malaria declined; so far, so good.
But there were side effects. Among the first was that the roofs of people’s houses began to fall down on their heads. It seemed that the DDT was also killing a parasitic wasp that had previously controlled thatch-eating caterpillars. Worse, the DDT-poisoned insects were eaten by geckos, which were eaten by cats. The cats started to die, the rats flourished, and the people were threatened by potential outbreaks of typhus and plague. To cope with these problems, which it had itself created, the World Health Organization was obliged to parachute 14,000 live cats into Borneo.”
From Michael Wines, “Monarch Migration Plunges,” NYT:
“The American Midwest’s corn belt is a critical feeding ground for monarchs, which once found a ready source of milkweed growing between the rows of millions of acres of soybean and corn. But the ubiquitous use of herbicide-tolerant crops has enabled farmers to wipe out the milkweed, and with it much of the butterflies’ food supply.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/science/earth/monarch-migration-plunges-to-lowest-level-in-decades.html
Are there parachutes for butterflies, Mr. Lynas? And what is your considered opinion on the similarly advancing and related [?] illnesses: colony collapse disorder, white nose syndrome, and chytridiomycosis?
Thank you.
Are you suggesting that the latter three diseases are somehow caused by GMOs?
Category error, eh? Mashing GMOs in with industrial agriculture and the rampant chemicalization of our environment, generally.
I am blinded by science, sir, at least the tale that paleobiology tells. Epic cycles of of peak origination and peak extinction. Advent of the Holocene: peak origination. Since: escalating extinction. Advent of industrialization: enter the Anthropocene or Sixth Mass Extinction, now well underway.
And Science as well-meaning handmaiden to commerce, you’ve got some epic blunders to answer for. Oh, the many “wonders” we’ve been most earnestly assured were, “effective, beneficial, and proven safe.”*
Rough logic? Unfounded caution? Lead- paint induced numbskullery? “Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me, uh — you can’t get fooled again.”
“[Am I] suggesting that the latter three diseases are somehow caused by GMOs?”
Your question appears to concede that monarch habitat loss is clearly an outcome of GMO “success.” To which I might ask, is that alone not too high a price to pay or, at minimum, grounds for caution? Are you perfectly certain that GMO use is not implicated in the latter three?
Are GM endo-toxins (Bt corn, etc.) truly bug-specific and otherwise utterly benign? In use now for all of a single human generation…
Now that corn borers and other critters are glyphophate tolerant, 2,4-D resistant food crops are in the hopper. Are you honesty sanguine about the cascading impacts the widespead use of this Agent Orange component will have, up and down the food chain, on our soil biology, our water ecology, our kids?
There are threads to disentangle, hairs to split, much-needed nuance. Stalwarts and converts to GM biotech – Mr Lynas here, Ramez Naam, Stewart Brand, amomg many others – might argue that, rather than harming pollinators and amphibians and so on, GM tech can be employed to save them! Okay! GM tech is unquestionably here to stay and full of promise.
How about a category error of a different sort? Is all GM tech “good” and “safe?” Must we be so hubristic and ham-fisted (GMO sceptics and critics are “conspiracy theorists” and “cultists”) in our support of the industrial-scale implementation of whatever new GMO Monsanto rolls out?
It seems like too nascent a science and too uncontrolled an experiment to me, now massively underway. Do we know with perfect foresight all the outcomes this experiment might avail?
There is no saying “No!” to GM biotech. It’s here. It will advance. And it is full of promise.
Count me a sceptic urging both precaution and empiricism decoupled from short-term profitmaking schemes that benefit a few while risking so much.
Sorry I didn’t manage to be more twitteresque here. Just laying out my bias and perspective as plainly as I can.
Thank you, Mark Lynas, and all commenters here for this much needed conversation.
* “Better living through chemistry!” Oh, wait…
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175693/tomgram%3A_rosner_and_markowitz%2C_your_body_is_a_corporate_test_tube/
Well, count me a pragmatic optimist who can differentiate between schemes that benefit the producer, and those that benefit the consumer and the enviroment. There are several biotech initiatives in the pipeline that have the latter outcomes: I’m all in favour of those. I’m not greatly in favour of schemes that encourage more spraying of herbicide, but if herbicide is going to be sprayed anyway then it might as well be a fairly benign one like glyphosate.
Regarding CCD, the EU has just slapped a moratorium for two years on neonics, which I totally support. We don’t have GMOs grown on any real scale in the UK but our bee population has still plummeted. So my thoughts on this matter are to be fully aware of the rirsk involved and weigh them up against those of not going ahead. In certain cases, like Golden Rice, it’s a no brainer.
Now in 2013 the use of GMO crops has become widespread in that country.
There has been time to consider the effect on the life style and health of that country and the results are not pretty.
Everyone that considers science knows that the present state of health in USA is poorer than other countries such as Europe and that USA people die younger than their counterparts elsewhere.
How much of this is due to the food they eat? And how much is due to the rising intake of GMO food?
Whatever else using some humility it might be better for USA to look to its own state of health and longevity before trying to save the rest of the world with GMO foods which many simply DO NOT WANT not out of luddite fears but believe more of the science of Pustzai, Russian workers and French workers on specific GMO crops than blanket statements that GMO food is just fine when 90 per cent of GMO foods have already been replaced with hopefully better types of GMO food. Starlink corn beiong one of dozens that didnt quite come up to the standard even of Monsanto et al.
The problem/solution is not to consider profits for the manufacturer or less work for the farmer but how about safe food for USA citizens so their health can be better and they can live longer?
My own salvation has been to move towards organic foods almost for the first time in my life as a response to my own bad health which may or may not have anything to do with forced imports of GMO foods to France that means on average we eat a kilogram a week at least of GMO food directly or indirectly.
I also believe that France is catching up with the poorer health and shorter life of USA citizens possibly from their forced GMO imports. Certainly if you look around the health of the nation seems to be drifting downhill in many ways. Increased obesity, autism in youngsters, diabetes rampant and irregularities of the heart etc etc.
Those were just the facts I could obtain.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005148.html
Damning official report on US health finds death and disease taking huge toll on population, particularly among young
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/10/americans-sicker-die-younger
“America may be one of the richest countries in the world, but its people are less healthy and more likely to die early from disease or accidents than those in any other affluent country, a damning official US report has found.
Even the best-off Americans – those who have health insurance, a college education, a high income and healthy behaviour – are sicker than their peers in comparable countries, says the report by the US National Research Council and the Institute of Medicine.”
“”Americans are dying and suffering at rates that we know are unnecessary because people in other high-income countries are living longer lives and enjoying better health. What really concerns our panel is why, for decades, we have been slipping behind.”"
1) Patents shouldn’t apply to sterilized seed. You buy the genome once, you get it forever – anything else is ransom.
2) GM of animals (as in Aquabounty salmon, which is so big it’s nearly immobile) is cruel.
3) GM differs from hybridization in that hybrid DNA has thousands of altered DNA proteins, where GM may have as few as one. Do these additional alterations serve a beneficial purpose for survival of the plant (and it’s nutrients)? Not well understood, but natural selection would support that conclusion. Could crops with altered GM DNA have disadvantageous characteristics we don’t know about, which could spread to hardy existing strains essentially “poisoning” their genome? Of course.
Could you elaborate on your first and third points because I’m not quite sure what you’re getting at (especially the third one). My understanding of patenting is that it’s not about the genome but certain varieties that are developed through trial and error costing a lot of money. Wouldn’t patents make sense if you have developed a novel crop variety? About your second point – is that true? I thought the AquaAdvantage salmon just reached full size quicker.
Re: #3, Monsanto is clueless about how airborne GM pollen might interact with native species and be harmful to them, either by making them vulnerable to disease, creating a competitor which becomes invasive, etc. By the time we find out one of their experiments has gone awry, it’s too late (transplanted native species are enough of an invasive challenge already).
Re: #2, when genetically modified calves in New Zealand died from ovaries that grew so large they ruptured, AgResearch’s applied technologies group manager shrugged it off, saying it wasn’t a big deal, just “part of the learning process”. Who knows how animals suffer from these freakish experiments, but it’s certainly not weighing on the conscience of livestock producers who are only interested in maximizing profit.
Second, resistance to insect pests (through Bt) or glyphosate (through RoundUp Ready) could potentially spread to neighboring species (plant biologist, feel free to help me out here). However, if non-crop species picked these traits up, they would be probably not become invasive. Glyphosate-resistant weeds can only be invasive in a field where glyphosate is sprayed – nowhere else. Bt-containing weeds could possibly have a competitive edge for a while but insects can quickly develop resistance (any entomologists out there care to comment?). Current Bt formulations (i.e. variants of the Bacillus thuringensis Cry proteins) have a limited life-span before insects become resistant – just like any other pesticide used in agriculture.
To be continued…
I find this difficult to believe and sad for without evidence of hatemail it seems just so much hot air.
Rather like his utterings here in fact.
Controversy there is for sure but conspiracy is his idea.
Billons not understanding seems over the top as in my view there are few indeed who understand this technology and sadly those most ignorant are those pressing ahead and despite the objections of those who have legitimate concern. They are just destroyed.
Dr Pustzai first congratulated one day by his boss and then sacked the next day by the same boss shows not conspiracy but dictatorial control of the GMO debate and the political power over science with no power.
Not surprising then that others who have found GMO harm have been sought out and destroyed or at least the attempt has been made.
Professor Seralini and three million euros and ten years of work was attacked before the world saw his papers in print.
Going back to Dr Pustzai his one complaint of many was being given a six foot stack of research documents and being told he had to pass the results as safe in 3 hours.
There is no proper discussion of GMO food and what is really happening.
The evidence is clear if you have need for a job then going against the GMO lobby is the best way to ruin a career and lose your income.
I would like to think man is clever enough to organise DNA and RNA and control it safely but to date we can change it easily now but safely?
One worry is the fact that before Berg and his hybridisation we had no accepted known retroviral illnesses. Today first came AIDS closely related to GMO work and then one by one other retroviral illnesses are being identified but again anyone who researches these are again thrown out of work. But to date there are a few known and numbers are around the half dozen or so.
Seraliniwas most recently attacked after his paper went into print. The study was criticised for its shoddy methodology and highly suspect analysis of the data. But it still saw publication, even after peer review. Basically the reviewers should have done their job properly.
The conclusion I draw from this episode is that on the whole the reviewers do perform their job properly, which is why similar shoddy studies don’t get through the process. I’m sure if I were so inclined I could design a study to produce any answer I wanted. Whether or not the methodology was sound would be a different matter.
John, three million euros and ten years obvioulsy don’t guarantee solid results.
Whatever. The main issue is whether the study deserved to be taken seriosuly. The EFSA published a report on the study pointing out nunmerous methodological flaws and why it shouldn’t.
Do you mean that he tested the GMO only for a very short time?
Do you mean he didnt look at the herbicide with the added chemicals that takes it into every cell in the insects body?
Do you mean that dead animals were reincarnated?
Are you implyinjg his work was FRAUD?
Can you give specific details?
His team of scientists from around the world ADMITTED one flaw in their work but REPORTED it without stating it was PROVEN.
This problem with MONSANTO GMO NK603 maize or corn was that it was found to be causing CANCER at significant levels but not up to the standards of 2013 cancer research.
This meant that there was a NEED to recheck his work.
And not a need to VETO his science or claim it should not be published.
Are you claiming that when significant but unproven harm is found we should NOT BE TOLD?
Keep taking the FLUORIDE, MERCURY etc as it not 100 per cent proven to cause CANCER?
Only 99.99 per cent sure. We need another 20 years to check and then another 20 years to be really sure.
I really don’t have time to issue a point-by-point rebuttal of your rant. Instead, go away and read this paper from end to end, like I did:
http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/doc/2986.pdf . And before you start denouncing these scientists as ‘shills’, come up with valid counter argument sfor each of the points they raise. In other words, put up, or shut up.
We are on the same page regarding Séralini et al.
I do have a problem with the scientific community’s reaction to Séralini though.
Where is the study using 50 rats per treatment per sex as recommended in the relevant international guidelines on carcinogenicity testing?
Isn’t that the point of peer review? To find possible flaws in a paper and then make a new study to confirm or deny them? ie falsify?
I agree Séralini et al. is not usable proof in and of itself, but where is the usable long term study that corrects Séralini’s use of only 10 rats rats per treatment per sex by using 50 rats per treatment per sex? Or any other of the minor flaws in the study?
Why wasn’t Séralini given funding to expand upon his work to meet relevant international guidelines on carcinogenicity testing?
On your comment about peer review: it’s intended primarily to make sure that published findings don’t fall down at the first instance of any criticism. It’s there to protect the reputation of the publishing organ, mainly, as a quality source of reliable information. Once the obvious criticism have been dealt with then publication can go ahead. In this case, lots of flak was directed at the paper subsequent to publication, which is unusual but not unheard of. In such as case it’s up to the author making the claims to substantiate them somehow in the face of such criticism.
In the case of Seralini, the main question arising from this study is not whether there should be subsequent studies, but why he didn’t do it properly in the first place.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/apr/30/gene-therapy-trials-heart-patients
As you’ve pointed out, people are needlessly dying because groups are indicting the wrong causes. Is it worse to have people eat GMO rice, or worse to do nothing about the corrupt governments/infrastructures that prevent them from accessing any food? In many cases, we actually have sufficient resources for many of the poor, but we fail to understand the real mechanisms behind poverty and its alleviation, and consequently help no one by engaging in activities that would actually bring about positive change for all the world. It takes greater courage to stand up to a country’s dictator than to a genetically modified kernel of corn.
Then I realized that GMOs don’t exist in a magical context-free vacuum in which capitalist corporations also don’t exist somehow or have the political and financial sway that they currently enjoy.
If people could afford the food they were paid slave wages to grow in parts of the world where people are starving, then we wouldn’t even need GMOs. I’m not saying they’re poison because that’s ridiculous. I’m saying that until capitalism and corporate person hood are abolished, I’m in opposition to everything Monsanto does to profit from both starving populations (including factory farm livestock) and their proposed GMO “fix” to the very same problem.
That means, unfortunately, being halfway steeped into anti-GMOism. That does not, however, mean being a conspiracy theorist about it. It means addressing the deeper problems, which also effect Greenpeace (which has hijacked the environmental movement to generate enormous profits and clout that they can further profit from).
Throwing your hands up in the air and letting Monsanto go wild isn’t going to fix the damage you feel you’ve done by protesting GMOs. Even protesting GMOs couldn’t possibly have done the damage you think it did without a significant helping hand from the stock market.
http://www.monsanto.com/newsviews/Pages/monsanto-blackwater-black-ops.aspx
See Jeremy Scahill’s reporting:
One of the most incendiary details in the documents is that Blackwater, through Total Intelligence, sought to become the “intel arm” of Monsanto, offering to provide operatives to infiltrate activist groups organizing against the multinational biotech firm.
http://www.thenation.com/article/154739/blackwaters-black-ops
[This is a repost- "caught in moderation; removed by Administrator..(?)" Pardon duplication.]
http://vidarbhatimes.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/maharashtra-govt-admits-bt-cotton.html
14,000 farmers have already committed suicide in India, thanks to this GM crap.
Thanks.
No they haven’t:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/01/26/the-myth-of-indias-gm-genocide-genetically-modified-cotton-blamed-for-wave-of-farmer-suicides/
yet another ‘zombie argument’
GM based deaths have been verified on evidence basis, not as a pure statistical correlation, by many agencies in India. The article which i have pointed is the agriculture minister speaking and not a random guy (as in the news article pointed by you) sitting on his laptop and trying to figure out a data correlation. I wouldn’t even call it a research or even a thought in that direction.
Bt cotton needs twice as water as compared to traditional varieties. GM is just suited to satisfy big pockets & big greed & big multinationals, however is not the solution to multi dimensional social economic problem that India faces. The solution is deep rooted in social financial independence of farms, farming & farmers in India and not the other way around.
I always find it amusing when someone from India (like yourself or that quack Shiva) has the chutzpah to preach to the rest of the world about how to farm. You have upwards of 61 million children under the age of 5 who are malnourished, far and away the highest in the world, and it has been that way for a long time. I’m old enough to remember when the main job of trash collectors in Calcutta was to clear starved people. “Oh, but industrial farming and GMOs will destroy us!!” The rest of the world seems to be able to feed itself with these methods. Why don’t you try to take yes for an answer??
You say “the article is just pointing out a correlation between number of deaths, introduction of GM cotton in India. It doesn’t point to any evidence based analysis, but is based on pure hypothesis.” And then “GM based deaths have been verified on evidence basis.” Which is it? “GM based deaths” implies causation, not correlation.
“Bt cotton needs twice as water as compared to traditional varieties.” Really? Cite the study. Bt cotton also yields about twice as much. Are you proposing that we reduce water use by reducing yield.?
Organic crops are lambasted here as being inefficient and requiring whole continents of farmland. Instead of promoting GMO crops and that technology, why aren’t we instead promote the technology of multistoried crops, i.e. farming in controlled (no or little herbicides or pesticides needed) huge multistoried buildings. Any one, any company can grow in this environment, there are no patent issues. Oh, maybe that’s why technology money isn’t going that direction.
How exactly do tou propose to get sunlight to these plants? Or if you’re going use lights how do you produce the power in an environmentally friendly manner?
Anything but GMOs, eh! Why do the ends always have to play second fiddle to the means?
To portray the issues as a binary either-or choice is disingenuous or naive. When one of those choices is building multistory farms with solar panels versus simply growing crops that can use sunlight better, then it’s getting silly.
So what it boils down to is that the only group capable of filling the consumers wishes has absolutely no power to do it, even though ways to do it are well known and have been well known for years. That’s because a single farmer, or small group of farmers, hasn’t the numbers to create economies of scale that agribiz has. And so if they fill the consumers wish for quality, it cost more. Not because it is more expensive in real costs. Because of no economies of scale which reduces consumer costs.
You can’t ever prove anything is totally safe. All you xcan do is weigh up the risks of eating something compared to the consequences of not eating it. In too many countries of the world still, not eating is a major cause of sickness and death.
If you’re looking for references to toxicity and feeding studies on GMO’s, check out the GENERA tab at the Biofortified site. They’re up to around 600 studies so far. As far as the Seralini study is concerned, a co-worker gave me an article by Arjo, et al. entitled, “Plurality of opinion, scienctific discourse and pseudoscience: an in depth analysis of the Seralini et al. study claiming that Roundup Ready corn or the herbicide Roundup cause cancer in rats.” Transgenic Research (2013) 22:255-267. It provides an exhaustive assessment of that study and it’s flaws, not to mention the disgraceful and self-aggrandizing behavior of the Principal Investigator
“But in 2008, the International Food Policy Research Institute, an alliance of 64 governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations that aims to end hunger in the developing world, reached an entirely different conclusion.
“It is not only inaccurate, but simply wrong to blame the use of Bt cotton as the primary cause of farmer suicides in India,” said the report, stating that the introduction of Bt cotton in India had actually been effective in producing higher yields and decreasing pesticide usage by nearly 40%.”
Perhaps the reason why BT cotton needs twice as much water is because the crops themselves, free from the burden of pestilence, end up being twice as productive?
In Western countries the farmers simply went bankrupt, sell the farm and move to the cities. That in itself is traumatic enough. India is a completely different culture. So the result in farmers reactions is completely different.
You are incredibly callous to dismiss this serious problem.
What everyone else should also know is that in certain places, like Thailand, almost nothing grown is GMO, nor do they use pesticides because they cost too much, and Thailand has no problem maintaining biodiversity or being one of the worlds leading exporters in rice.
This guy is an academic nightmare, who has no idea what the word epistemology means. This will more than likely fall on deaf ears, I’m going to assume most of you have herd mentality, and also that none of you are attempting to head towards self sustainability, in other words, you are children in adults bodies, incapable of taking care of yourselves. You grew up consuming that rubbish called “knowledge” which was fed to you in textbooks in grade 9, now you adamantly debate over something which you have no knowledge of. In order to understand anything, one must understand what is the pervasive force of the universe. Particle physics and the electromagnetic realm is a great place to start. Many biologists believe that they bring gospel to the scientific method, however, biology has been given a huge hand by electronic diagnostics, which only electrical engineers truly understand and know how to interpret and calibrate.
Also as a side note, this is a wonderful comment on the world today. It’s not like for decades there haven’t been huge groves of individuals who called on their democratic leaders to go easy on the environment, or to consider valuing quality of life over growing economies. Instead of debating what is “right” and “just”, instead of questioning why we have so many humans doing useless jobs such as call center work, this article says there is a food problem and it can only be solved by “science” and all of you are keeping people from eating because you want to hold GMOs back. What absolute rubbish and naiveté. Many where I’m from have been calling on their members of parliament to establish greenhouses and home gardens galore, empower everyone to grow their own sustainable product. This article calls on someone else to take responsibility. How convenient, all these people arguing over something they wouldn’t lift a finger to address, including this clown at the podium. Good luck being bereft of any real wisdom you sheep. And good luck having someone clean your diapers, babies.
There is such a lack of real science here I must depart or else I may explode from pseudo-science nausea.
By the way, I’ve already accounted for your retort, you’re going to say that I’m a gutter-loving hippie who believes the world should be run by chaos and everyone has polio. Good luck with that.
-zero
Bear in mind that Lynas came from a background where adherence to pseudoscience was worn like a badge of honor. Anyone who questioned their conclusions was labeled a shill, regardless of how logical the rebuttal. I don’t know the guy, maybe he knows more than he did before and maybe he doesn’t. But as someone who has made around 20K GMO plants since 1986, I can tell you that our industry has been attacked by psuedoscience for the better part of two decades; starting with the Monarch butterfly BS and most lately with the Seralini thing. As Bill Clinton famously said, “I feel your pain.”
Oh, and “this article says there is a food problem and it can only be solved by “science”.” That’s a bit of a strawman, no? Certainly, very few in this industry think that GMO’s or science is the only solution, but it needs to be part of the solution.
Can we dot our i’s and cross our t’s here? Which MB BS are you pointing out? The inconclusive endotoxin (Bt pollen) link or the “success” of exotoxins (primarily glyphosphate) at decimating milkweed and, in turn, monarch populations?
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/12/science/12butterfly.html?pagewanted=all&_r=2&
People like you latch on to problems with the application of a technology in order to try to discredit its whole basis. It’s like saying that all medicines should be banned because antibiotics cause the development of resistance. It’s a lazy, facile argument which might wash in the kind of circles you move in, but here you’re going to have to do a hell of a lot better.
Do you really talk like this to everyone? I really don’t have the time or energy to unpick this tangle of latinate polysyllabic verbiage, mainly because I think that whatever argument I end up finding at the core of it wouldn’t very profound or interesting. I’m pretty confident’ I don’t see this issue through any ‘cognitive distortions’. I don’t, for instance, take one aspect of agricultural husbandry and use it to discredit a whole approach. Milkweeds don’t grow in glyphosate resistant fields? Very well, we’ll make sure they grow in refuges. It’s a totally manageable problem in the the application of these new crops. And you can bet your bloody life that what’s gone on elsewhere and previously has had a far more profound impact on our insect life than this particular regime.
Oh, and when I want lectures on how to go about thinking about issues, I’ll ask for them, and then seek them from my intellectual peers: research scientists with doctorates who have a track record in thinking about and dealing with real problems.
~ Tom Atlee
Dear Mr. D,
In the first note I addressed to you on this thread, I sought to expose my own bias and impugned my own logic! I have doubts and suspicions and, yes, fears – the latter not unknown for blurring one’s vision. Admittedly, most of my observations are correlational and pattern-based: increased incidence of ABC/ increased incidence of XYZ – Hmmm? I copped to generalizing; to lumping synthetic biology in with the over-chemicalization of our environment, among other trends in the advance of industrialization. I’ve chimed in here seeking to become better informed, wanting to be persuaded, hoping that the confidence and assurance evinced by some here (if sometimes smugly) might just rub off. If you, Mark Lynas, Ramez Naam (who pointed me here), and others can liberate “people like [me]” from our doubts and fears on this matter, please do! And thank you!
In turn, well, your apparent absence of doubt on certain points brings to mind this sort of quip:
“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.”
~ Bertrand Russell
Seriously, between my precautionary scepticism and your pragmatic optimism on this subject, the edge toward zealotry is more clearly in your court.
While, in particular, I am muddling through more of the evidence and findings on glyphosphate (much of it laudatory), I continue to plod along mostly in generalities and pattern searches. For example:
We are thick in the midst of the Anthropocene or Sixth Mass Extinction, our own ecological niche imperilled on several fronts.
[Do you dispute this?]
Worldwide, we are seeing marked increases in chronic, noncommunicable diseases, including autoimmune disorders.
[Do you dispute this?]
On this score, Virginia T. Ladd, President and Executive Director of the American Autoimmune Related Diseases Association (AARDA), explains:
“With the rapid increase in autoimmune diseases, it clearly suggests that environmental factors are at play due to the significant increase in these diseases. Genes do not change in such a short period of time.”
The most widely-spread and significant implementation (and potentially the most consequential – for good or ill) of all of our experimentation with GMOs is in global agriculture. The widespread use of GMO food crops involves the concomitant (and similarly massive) introduction of numerous synthetic biocides (whether endo- or exo-) into the environment.
[Is this disputable?]
Increasing amounts of active pharmaceutical ingredients, endocrine disruptors, and genetic pollution are being found in our waterways (the Thames, the Potomac, Puget Sound, the Artic!) and drinking water.
[Dubious?]
Questions begging answers:
Do you know what’s in your drinking water?
Could you hazard a guess of what a “body burden” assay of your own blood might reveal?
Am I party to a lynch mob, madly in search of a “suspect,” my pitchfork wrongly poised at the throat of “Frankenfoods?”
Accelerating species loss, rising disease rates, increasing use of pesticide-paired GMOs – all in historical tandem. Hmmm?
Yes, let me trot out something from Joseph Mercola (“How GE Trees Affect the Environment”), who Ramez Naam has dismissed as in irredeemable “quack”:
“Genetic engineering (GE) of our food supply amounts to a massive science experiment being performed on mankind, without consent or full disclosure. Although the biotech industry continues to claim GE products are safe, the truth is that no one knows what the long-term effects will be, because no one has done the necessary studies.
The loudest proponents of GE are the ones who stand to profit the most, and they don’t seem terribly concerned about the human or environmental costs.
What do we know for certain? We know genetic engineering is riddled with unpredictable effects, so we should expect the unexpected.”
I’ve never bought any of the products Mercola is selling or read any of his other writings, but I’m definitely invested in exactly this point of view. In part, I’m persuaded on grounds of risk assessment and the potential scale of damage involved. What potential risk does the perspective and business of this particular quack (small/light footprint) pose to Life on Earth, contrasted with the aims and business (huge/heavy footprint) being carried out by mega-corporations like Monsanto, Dow, Bayer, Syngenta, et al?
Is there no cause for pause, possibly to remediate some of our other self-inflicted wounds, before burdening ourselves and Ol’ Ma Nature with more of our well-meaning “scientific” detritus?
“Lazy” this, mon frere.
Again and still,
A cautious sceptic
http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/Issues/2008/September/SomethingInTheWater.asp
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomonitoring
You are also quite right to view GMO’s as part of the larger conventional Ag system, and not taken in a reductionist manner. I sincerely believe GMOs could be put to beneficial use, but like all technology, it is the use that makes the technology good or bad, not the technology itself. Right now that isn’t the case.
Look at my comment about the ‘rule of three’ earlier in this thread. And then tell me whether this argument still has any legs to it. Or if you don’t understand that, then at least posit a hypothetical mechanism by which GMOs which have been cleared for allegernicity and toxicity can go on to cause chronic health effects.
And if you’re going to insist on officiously bandying honorifics, referring to me as ‘Mr. D’ ro ‘Mr. Davies’, then at least get it right and accord me the basic respect of referring to me by my proper title , would you?
To your other point, from Wikipedia, Rule of three (statistics):
“For example, a pain-relief drug is tested on 1500 human subjects, and no adverse event is recorded. From the rule of three, it can be concluded with 95% confidence that fewer than 1 person in 500 (or 3/1500) will experience an adverse event.”
Fair enough.
In your rule of three reference above, you site 3T meals of GMO foods consumed over the last two decades. You go on to say:
“So three divide by three trillion gives a *maximum* risk of one in a trillion. The real risk is like to be even smaller.”
Your example appears to posit that 3T meals have been consumed – “and no adverse event is recorded.” Hence, the risk of any toxic effect from the consumption of GMOs is less than 1 in 1T.
There are some very negative health trends within the cohort you site – the human consumers of those 3T meals. A graph line of the advance and acceleration of these “adverse events” in the last two decades would probably overlay neatly on a graph line of the rates and increases in GMO food consumption.
Let’s see. It do happens that Justin Beiber was born about two decades ago. And ascribing increased incidence of chronic disease and autoimmune disorders on the last two decades to increased consumption of GMOs is the same as blaming it on the Beeb. These are all historical parallels, but where’s the proof of causation?
All I’ve got is correlation and conjecture. The studies that purport to link human disease with GMOs are all debunked as pseudoscience or marketing ploys. And of course, the medical science conducted and published by Monsanto, Dow, Syngenta, Bayer, and Big Pharma would never be fuzzied up by petty marketing considerations.
In the realm of concession speech, snippets from another conversation with Ramez Naam, et al, on GMOs:
Personally, I continue to fret. The scale of the consequences – realized and potential; good or ill – is HUGE. I suppose I’m “caving in” along some lines of this broad and broadening subject matter, synthetic biology – a new terrestrial life phylum – is less and less a “black or white” issue to me. Besides, whatever our sentiments, passions, and persuasions may be, and given the scale of GMO experimentation/implementation already underway, “organic” biology on this planet may already be a relic.
Absent massive revolt with attendant seed, crop, lab, literature, and (possibly) a few scientist burnings [!], the genie is out of the bottle, come what may, the magnitude of “stamping it out” too improbable (politically and otherwise), if not impossible. We’re on to “conscientious management” of what appear to be indelible, irreversible changes to Earth’s biology.
It’s likely I will continue to shake my pitchfork at the “monster,” lamenting the loss of the dear ol’ Natural world we inherited. And it’s not altogether bravely that I accede to this Brave New World.
On a brighter note, your kind patience, Ramez, and your confident assurances do go some ways toward tempering my fears and assuaging my grief. “C’mon in! The water’s fine!” You and others have coaxed me in to the wading end of the pool, where we are all challenged, now, to jump in kicking and screaming or jump in better-informed. Increasingly, that appears to be the extent of any remaining choice we have in this matter.
* * *
This debate, including our conversation here, is akin to the debate that preceded the detonation of the first atomic bomb. I live in the leeward shadow of the Sandia Mountains, atop which some of the Manhattan Project scientists stood and gazed a couple of hundred miles to the south, to the Trinity site, where “Little Boy” was exploded. Many laypeople and esteemed scientists alike predicted catastrophe, some fearing that Earth’s entire atmosphere would ignite and incinerate us all. And it’s reported that soon after the detonation, the project director Robert Oppenheimer exclaimed (quoting Hindu scripture): “Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.”
The GMO bomb, the first wave at any rate, has been dropped – carpeting the planet – all of its reverberations and fallout yet to be accounted for. Doubtless, the nuclear naysayers were called Neo-Luddites, quacks, and conspiracy theorists in their turn, too. Now, whether these are truly “friendly” goads here, urging and inviting us into a “better” future, or simply insults heaped upon injury, well, that is yet to be determined, too.
W e w i l l s e e.
And we will hope, along with our truly patient and well-meaning GMO proponents here (some of their fingers are crossed, too, you can be certain) that the GMOs loosed in the world will not seal our doom, with human history, our legacy, summed up in Oppenheimer’s quote.
And also, quite possibly, as with the nuclear naysayers, things may not turn out as awful as some of us fear they might.
* * *
Clyde, you’ve a good sport, dogged and, yes, insightful in your advocacy of GMOs. It’s been a stimulating and informative dialogue that Mark Lynas has inspired and hosted here. My sincerest thanks to you and all the other participants.
On the subject of correlations, do you have any idea what’s entered our food supply over the past two decades? We have ingredients in our foodstuffs that we never dreamt of in the seventies and eighties: stuff like pine nuts for example. If there’s been an increase in food allergies, then you need to compare the increase in Europe where GMOs are as a whole not consumed and the US where they are. I’d expect you’d find little difference in the trends. (The same for bee decline, by the way).
My favourite graph showing a correlation->causation fallacy can be found at http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/de/PiratesVsTemp%28en%29.svg/800px-PiratesVsTemp%28en%29.svg.png .
And I am very glad you have stopped calling me Mr. Davies but are now using my first name. Thank you.
I have a gluten intolerance. I can eat little or no pasta or bread without severe consequences. I can’t drink much beer, and also I have to avoid red wine. It’s a pretty miserable diet sometimes. GMOs in my case are definitely not to blame as we don’t consume them in the UK.
Ok, here’s a challenge for you. Explain how ‘particle physics and the electromagnetic realm’ can possibly explain the theory of Natural Selection, let alone predict it – the single most important force in biology and possible the best idea anyone has ever had anywhere.
My small bit of wisdom? “Don’t believe everything you think”. It takes an exceptional person a great deal of self-examination to be aware of his inherited beliefs and prejudices. We ALL think we are rational and most of us think we are above average.
Thank you!
So the solution of changing to a more sustainable agricultural model also is an important help to BOTH poverty and nutrition. And this change is completely separate from GMOs in a reductionist view, but has everything to do with GMOs in a systems thinking view. Primarily since GMOs like golden rice are part of the conventional models attempt to prop up that failing agricultural system.
So, a Systems Thinker says: ‘I’ve got a great idea! Let’s rip out all the world’s open sewers and bury them with new sewers, ensure that every single house on the planet has running water and water closets and deep clean them while we’re at it every month! It’ll only take fifty years!’ Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation quietly gets on with its vaccination program.
In fact, this analogy is totally apposite: we have a integrated, ‘systems’ approach that does everything except engage with the crux of the problem: eradicating the virus. Similarly, the ‘systems’ approach fails to engage with the issue with VAD: making sure that people get enough of the vitamin in their daily diet by integrating it directly with their staple food, which is rice. Minimum disruption entails and they can get on with their lives much as they did beforehand, except that none of them go blind or die from the disease now.
Vaccinating people against totally preventable diseases means that more of them live to adulthood, and many fewer workdays are lost. It helps them pull themselves out of poverty. Allowing people to grow their own nutrients as easily as possoible and with the minimum of readjustment means that they similarly get to lead healthier and more productive lives. Why do they wait for every piece of the jigsaw to fall into place first?
Seems to me that we are working on different puzzles.
What makes your puzzle take priority of the organic puzzle? The fact that the industry got a big boost from WWII? Or that it is actually a superior model to build on?
Personally I believe the organic model is a far superior model to build on, in so much as it builds on the biological systems model all life on the planet evolved around. Biomimicry seems to me to be the obvious choice as a start since biological systems are already proven to function. If they didn’t we wouldn’t be even having this discussion.
Neil, ‘nutritionally inferior’? Can’t let that one slide. Cite the studies, please. If there is a higher concentration of some nutrients in organic crops (I assume that is what you’re talking about), it is typically due to 1) more stress on the plant and/or 2) less water content in the edible part. The question I have is this: is the increase in nutrient offest by the decrease in yield that is seen in most organic crops. Do you actually produce LESS nutrient per acre? Is THAT sustainable agriculture? Also are the increases claimed by these folks actually biologically relevant; or do have to eat 400 more strawberries to see the benefit?
Scott, us GMO types don’t operate in a vacuum, if that’s what you’re implying. Plant breeders, pathologists, physiologists, nutrtionists and growers ARE always involved. If you don’t satisfy the grower or processor or whoever your customer might be, you don’t have a product.
And you can call it a reductionist approach if you want, but GMO or not, that approach continues to fill the tankers with grain to send around the world to feed those who have a food shortage regardless of what local method is failing at the time.
I’ll give you my own ‘systems thinking’ approach on this issue. Poverty begets malnutrition, malnutrition begets disease and death, and disease and death beget poverty. It’s a vicious little circular kind of system, and is easily, most quickly and effectively addressed by breaking its first link. Golden Rice would cost $100 per individual per year to treat VAD. Dietary supplementation would cost upwards of a thousand. Either approach, however, is infinitely better than the neo-colonialist, `let them eat broccoli` kind of condescension on offer from the likes of Greenpeace, The Soil Association and Friends of the Earth.
Organic is a science based approach to farming, Traditional is often steeped in pseudo science and/or cultural traditions, mythology etc…. Organic may sometimes LOOK like traditional, but the tool kit is significantly more diverse than “only a hammer”. The advantage to organic is instead of looking at maximizing production per farmer, it maximizes production per acre. Yes that may mean more labor, but in those poor countries you are speaking about, driving the farmer off the land and into abject poverty to reduce labor costs of conventional “green revolution” farming, then being charitable and supplying them with free monoculture grain surpluses is the cruel irony.
Buit as I said, the kind of farming you embrace addresses the issue of environmental and resource sustainabIlity. nothing wrong with that. it’s just i see more pressing issues facing these people, and sometimes a quick ‘tech’ fix is just the ticket.
http://occupymonsanto360.org/2013/03/02/syngenta-charged-for-covering-up-livestock-deaths-from-gm-corn/
Genes become modified in plants and animals all the time, whether this modification occurs in the natural environment or in a laboratory is irrelevant to the potential risks. Engineered modifications could arguably be safer than natural ones because they are tightly controlled and stringently trialled.
GMOs are not inherently evil or dangerous, though the pseudoscience and bureaucracy surrounding them may well be. Just label ALL foods GMO, and rightly so. Countries banning them will quickly reconsider their unjustified position.
However, if you take out the’urgency’ arguments, and also take a big look at what real evolution for our specias might look like, I believe something more akin to understanding soil and microbes would be the way forward.
To me, GMO’s are like a last gasp attempt to keep a chemical fertilzer business alive. If instead we could really harness the power of microbes to rebuild depleted agricultural land and one that worked with nature rather than against it, then we’d really be on to something with integrity and vsion for the future . Here’s an article about research my friend Christopher Cooke has been doing in Australia: http://www.sustainabilityleadershipinstitute.org/downloads/CookeArticle_Mar2011.pdf
http://www.jic.ac.uk/staff/giles-oldroyd/
The irony is that the conventional model is not the only model. Organic models are far more robust long term. Some problems like ecosystem services, carbon sequestration etc are easily fixed by organic methods, so you don’t have the urgency to approve GMOs before the failure of ecosystem services and global warming collapse the model.
Does anyone see the difference?
You have to have GMOs because conventional Ag has the environment so messed up that it will eventually collapse without GMOs.
But if you switched to an agricultural model that doesn’t mess up the environment in the first place, and many times can even heal the land after conventional methods made it barren, then the urgency goes away.
Prejudice from the lay people who have not enough knowledge on the subject as from the resource owners who despised the importance to educate the same final technology users. The owners mistake was to ignore the importance of educating people on this and other relevant matters. Rather they prefer the cheapest option, to advertise the “wonderful” virtues of their products betting on winning along. In fact, those above us all have the potential to manipulate the owner’s law on their best interest, much easier than the reverse.
So, those “who have not” do prefer delaying the matter as long as possible, whatever excuses be necessary. The patent issues are the “safeguards” to investors: the more restrictive they are the higher the chances to make money but more restrictive to scientists also. The reverse is also true… Of course patent holders understand this and prefer to take the matter to legal courts (do they have less expensive options?), as seen in all high end field technologies; they have the power to play this game.
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/11/corn-yields-have-increased-six-times.html
http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/YieldTrends.html
http://agronomyday.cropsci.illinois.edu/2011/tour-alternativesoybean.html
http://www.ncagr.gov/stats/release/croprelease01.pdf
Disagree. And the reason is simple: Most experts in any field (be it GMO, vaccinations, energy, or transportation) work for, or have financial ties with, a bottom-line driven company. And as Upton Sinclair once said “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!”
Therefore, these experts are incapable of fully understanding everything that they are supposed to!